Threat to evacuate US diplomats from Iraq raises fear of war

BAGHDAD: Washington has made preparations to withdraw diplomats from Iraq after warning Baghdad it may shut its embassy, two Iraqi officers and two Western diplomats mentioned, a step Iraqis worry may flip their nation right into a battle zone.

Any transfer by the United States to scale back its diplomatic presence in a rustic the place it has as much as 5,000 troops can be extensively seen within the area as an escalation of its confrontation with Iran, which Washington blames for missile and bomb assaults.

That in flip would open the opportunity of army motion, with simply weeks to go earlier than an election wherein President Donald Trump has campaigned on a tough line in direction of Tehran and its proxies. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to shut the embassy in a cellphone name every week in the past to President Barham Salih, two Iraqi authorities sources mentioned. The dialog was initially reported by an Iraqi information web site.

By Sunday, Washington had begun preparations to withdraw diplomatic workers if such a call is taken, these sources and the 2 Western diplomats mentioned. The concern among the many Iraqis is that withdrawing diplomats can be adopted shortly by army motion towards forces Washington blamed for assaults.

Populist Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who instructions a following of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, final week pleaded for teams to keep away from aggravation that will flip Iraq right into a battleground. One of the Western diplomats mentioned the U.S. administration didn’t “want to be limited in their options” to weaken Iran or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Asked whether or not he anticipated Washington to reply with financial or army measures, the diplomat replied: “Strikes.”

The US State Department, requested about plans to withdraw from Iraq, mentioned: “We never comment on the Secretary`s private diplomatic conversations with foreign leaders … Iran-backed groups launching rockets at our Embassy are a danger not only to us but to the Government of Iraq.”

Earlier this month, the United States army mentioned it will cut back its presence in Iraq to three,000 troops from 5,200. The Pentagon mentioned on Monday it was dedicated to supporting Iraq`s long-term “security, stability, and prosperity” and U.S. army operations towards Islamic State continued.

PERENNIAL RISK

In a area polarised between allies of Iran and the United States, Iraq is the uncommon exception: a rustic that has shut ties with each. But that has left it open to a perennial threat of changing into a battleground in a proxy battle. That threat was hammered dwelling in January this 12 months, when Washington killed Iran`s most essential army commander, Qassem Soleimani, with a drone strike at Baghdad airport. Iran responded with missiles fired at U.S. bases in Iraq.

Since then, a brand new prime minister has taken energy in Iraq, supported by the United States, whereas Tehran nonetheless maintains shut hyperlinks to highly effective Shi`ite armed actions. Rockets repeatedly fly throughout the Tigris in direction of the closely fortified U.S. diplomatic compound, constructed to be the most important US embassy on this planet in central Baghdad`s so-called Green Zone through the U.S. occupation after a 2003 invasion.

In current weeks rocket assaults close to the embassy have elevated and roadside bombs focused convoys carrying tools to the U.S.-led army coalition. One roadside assault hit a British convoy in Baghdad, the primary of its type towards Western diplomats in Iraq for years. On Monday three kids and two ladies have been killed when two militia rockets hit a household dwelling, the Iraqi army mentioned. Police sources mentioned Baghdad airport was the supposed goal.

Two Iraqi intelligence sources prompt plans to withdraw American diplomats weren’t but in movement, and would rely upon whether or not Iraqi safety forces have been capable of do a greater job of halting assaults. They mentioned that they had acquired orders to stop assaults on U.S. websites, and had been informed that U.S. evacuations would start provided that that effort failed.

DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

Iraqis are involved concerning the influence of November`s presidential election on the Trump administration`s decision-making. While Trump has boasted of his exhausting line towards Iran, he has additionally lengthy promised to withdraw U.S. troops from engagements within the Middle East. The United States is already drawing down its power despatched to assist defeat Islamic State fighters in Iraq from 2014-2017.

Some Iraqi officers dismissed Pompeo`s risk to drag out diplomats as bluster, designed to scare armed teams into stopping assaults. But they mentioned it may backfire by scary the militias as a substitute, in the event that they sense a possibility to push Washington to retreat. “The American threat to close their embassy is merely a pressure tactic, but is a double-edged sword,” mentioned Gati Rikabi, a member of Iraq`s parliamentary safety committee.

He and one other committee member mentioned U.S. strikes have been designed to scare Iraqi leaders into supporting Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who has tried to examine the facility of Iran-aligned militia teams, with scant success.

HAWKS ON BOTH SIDES

The militias are underneath public strain to rein in supporters who may provoke Washington. Since final 12 months, public opinion in Iraq has turned sharply towards political teams seen as fomenting violence on behalf of Iran. Publicly, the highly effective Iran-backed Shi`ite militia teams which management massive factions in parliament have tried to distance themselves from assaults on Western targets.

U.S. officers say they suppose the Shi`ite militias or their Iranian backers have created splinter offshoots to hold out such assaults, permitting the primary organisations to evade blame. A senior determine in a Shi`ite Muslim political social gathering mentioned he thought Trump may need to pull out diplomats to maintain them out of hurt`s approach and keep away from an embarrassing pre-election incident.

Militia assaults weren’t essentially underneath Tehran`s management, he mentioned, noting that Iran`s international ministry had publicly referred to as for a halt to assaults on diplomatic missions in Iraq. “Iran wants to boot the Americans out, but not at any cost. It doesn`t want instability on its Western border,” the Shi`ite chief mentioned. “Just like there are hawks in the U.S., there are hawks in Iran who have contact with the groups carrying out attacks, who aren`t necessarily following state policy.”