Washington DC: A brand new overview printed in Frontiers in Public Health means that COVID-19, the sickness brought on by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, will seemingly change into seasonal in international locations with temperate climates, however solely when herd immunity is attained. Until that point, COVID-19 will proceed to flow into throughout the seasons.
These conclusions spotlight absolutely the significance of public well being measures wanted simply now to manage the virus. “COVID-19 is here to stay and it will continue to cause outbreaks year-round until herd immunity is achieved. Therefore, the public will need to learn to live with it and continue practicing the best prevention measures, including wearing of masks, physical distancing, hand hygiene, and avoidance of gatherings,” mentioned senior writer of the examine Dr Hassan Zaraket, of the American University of Beirut in Lebanon.
Collaborating writer Dr. Hadi Yassine, of Qatar University in Doha, affirms and states that there may very well be a number of waves of COVID-19 earlier than herd immunity is achieved. We know that many respiratory viruses comply with seasonal patterns, particularly in temperate areas.
For occasion, influenza and several other kinds of coronaviruses that trigger the frequent chilly are identified to peak in winter in temperate areas however flow into year-round in tropical areas.
The authors reviewed these seasonal viruses, analyzing the viral and host components that management their seasonality in addition to the newest data on the soundness and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
The researchers clarify that virus survival within the air and on surfaces, individuals`s susceptibility to infections, and human behaviors, corresponding to indoor crowding, differ throughout the seasons as a consequence of modifications in temperature and humidity.
These components affect the transmission of respiratory viruses at completely different occasions of the yr. However, compared to different respiratory viruses such because the flu, COVID-19 has a better price of transmission (R0), a minimum of partly as a consequence of circulation in a largely immunologically naive inhabitants.
This implies that in contrast to the flu and different respiratory viruses, the components governing seasonality of viruses can’t but halt the unfold of COVID-19 in the summertime months. But, as soon as herd immunity is attained via pure infections and vaccinations, the R0 ought to drop considerably, making the virus extra vulnerable to seasonal components.
Such seasonality has been reported for different coronaviruses, together with people who emerged extra not too long ago corresponding to NL63 and HKU1, which comply with the identical circulation sample as influenza.
“This remains a novel virus and despite the fast-growing body of science about it, there are still things that are unknown. Whether our predictions hold true or not remains to be seen in the future. But we think it`s highly likely, given what we know so far, COVID-19 will eventually become seasonal, like other coronaviruses,” provides Zaraket.
“The highest global COVID-19 infection rate per capita was recorded in the Gulf states, regardless of the hot summer season. Although this is majorly attributed to the rapid virus spread in closed communities, it affirms the need for rigorous control measures to limit virus spread, until herd immunity is achieved,” Dr Yassine mentioned.